Who Will Be the Next Pope? Prevost Elected as Leo XIV

When white smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel on May 8, 2025, the Catholic Church greeted its first American pope in two millennia of history. Robert Francis Prevost, a Chicago-born cardinal who spent most of his career abroad, emerged as Pope Leo XIV, ending a conclave that had drawn the world’s attention for two days.

Pope Francis Death: April 21, 2025 · Conclave Dates: May 7-8, 2025 · Cardinal Electors: 135 · Key Candidates: Parolin, Tagle, Prevost · Elector Diversity: Over 75% non-European

The key facts table below summarizes the essential parameters of the 2025 papal conclave.

Who is the most likely person to be the next pope?

The question that dominated headlines for weeks was answered definitively on May 8, 2025. Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, a 69-year-old from Chicago, secured election on the fourth ballot, taking the name Leo XIV. The result surprised many observers who had considered an American pope “very unlikely” before the conclave began, according to ABC News analysis.

Pietro Parolin

The Italian cardinal entered the conclave as the betting favorite, with odds reaching 37 percent on Polymarket before declining to 27 percent, The Ringer reported. At 70 years old, Parolin had served as Vatican Secretary of State since 2013—a position nicknamed the “Deputy Pope.” His tenure included overseeing the controversial 2018 agreement with China that granted Beijing a role in naming bishops. Despite his frontrunner status, Parolin ultimately lost the final vote.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

The Filipino cardinal was the second favorite candidate, with supporters highlighting his “Asian Francis” nickname earned through his personal simplicity and focus on the poor, National Catholic Reporter noted. Had Tagle been elected, he would have become the first pope from Asia, following Francis as the first South American pope 12 years prior. Tagle was appointed archbishop of Manila by Pope Benedict in 2011.

Robert Prevost

Prevost served as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops and president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, according to Wikipedia records. Most significantly, he spent most of his career outside the United States—a factor that could ease concerns about an Americentric papacy. Experts had noted traditional wariness about a pope from the Anglosphere, ABC News observed.

When will the next pope be elected?

Pope Francis died on April 21, 2025, at age 88, triggering the formal transition process. The conclave commenced on May 7, 2025, in the Sistine Chapel, where black smoke on the morning of the second day indicated no decision had been reached, National Catholic Reporter documented. By late afternoon on May 8, white smoke confirmed a new pope had been chosen.

Conclave schedule

The 135 eligible cardinals—those under 80 years old as of April 21—convened for up to four voting sessions daily. Each requires a two-thirds majority, meaning 89 of the 135 electors needed to agree. Four ballots across two days delivered Prevost his majority.

Francis succession timeline

The Vatican previewed the complete list of electors on April 30, revealing the demographic shift that would define this conclave. Eight out of ten cardinals entering the conclave were elevated to their rank by Pope Francis himself, National Catholic Reporter noted—giving his appointees dominant influence over the succession.

Who will be the next pope after Francis?

Beyond the frontrunners, several candidates represented different wings and regions of the church. Matteo Zuppi, the 69-year-old archbishop of Bologna appointed by Francis in 2015, was described by TIME as “the most likely continuity candidate, best equipped to cement Francis’s legacy.” Zuppi was made president of the Italian bishops’ conference in 2022.

Key frontrunners

Peter Turkson from Ghana and Peter Erdo from Hungary represented the conservative wing. Erdo, according to National Catholic Reporter, was “the likely top candidate for the conservative wing of the College of Cardinals” but was also known for anti-migrant views aligned with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Robert Sarah from Guinea, listed at just 2 percent odds on Polymarket, was described as an ultra-conservative critic of Francis.

Global shift in electors

The 2025 conclave marked a dramatic departure from historical patterns. For the first time, 15 nations were represented by their native cardinal electors, Vatican News reported. The cardinals were “much more globally dispersed in 2025 than they were 12 years prior,” The Ringer noted, with many of the 2025 conclave voters participating in a papal conclave for the first time.

Who are the leading candidates for next pope?

The betting markets offered a quantifiable glimpse into horse-race journalism’s answer to this question. Parolin led with 37 percent odds. Tagle held second place. Prevost, despite his eventual victory, carried longer odds reflective of the conventional wisdom against an American pope. Sarah lingered at 2 percent.

European vs non-European

The tension between continuity and change animated every conversation about candidates. Parolin’s policy positions on LGBTQ+ rights were described as “more conservative than Francis’s” by The Ringer, making his election a potential status-quo outcome. Tagle’s election would have “further continued Francis’s hope of decentralizing the church away from Europe.” Prevost’s international experience positioned him as a bridge between these factions.

Betting favorites

Polymarket odds captured the pre-conclave consensus: Parolin at 37 percent declining to 27 percent, Tagle as clear second, and a long tail of contenders below 10 percent. The conclave ultimately rejected the favorite, demonstrating that betting markets—unlike elections—cannot account for the secret deliberations of 135 cardinals behind closed doors.

What ethnicity is Robert Prevost?

Prevost is an American cardinal of Peruvian descent through his mother’s family. His Chicago birthplace and nationality mark a historic first, but his career trajectory emphasized global church experience over any distinctly American identity. TIME documented that he “spent most of his career outside the United States,” serving in ecclesiastical roles across Latin America and Europe.

Background details

Born in Chicago, Prevost joined the Chicago-based Augustinian order and pursued much of his ministry in Peru before rising through Vatican ranks. His appointment as prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops placed him at the center of Francis’s drive to diversify the global episcopate.

Role in hierarchy

As head of Francis’s main advisory group on picking new bishops, Prevost helped shape the very body that elected him. The Italian press, TIME noted, had described Parolin as “the natural heir to Pope Francis’ legacy”—but the actual heir turned out to be someone insiders called a prudent moderate with consistent focus on democracy and human rights.

The candidate comparison table below highlights the pre-conclave profiles of major contenders.

The 2025 conclave will be studied for decades as a turning point in church history. The electors who chose an American pope—over the Italian favorite who led every betting market—signaled that the Francis era’s geographic diversification was not merely rhetorical. For the Catholic Church’s 1.4 billion adherents, the question of leadership identity has been fundamentally reshaped: the papacy now belongs to a man whose career spanned three continents and whose election required the consent of cardinals from 71 nations. What Leo XIV does with that mandate will define his papacy—and perhaps the church’s trajectory for the next generation.